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              1. 暖通空调杂志社>期刊目次>2019年>第7期

                公共建筑能耗特征模型及实证*

                Establishment and empirical application of energy consumption characteristic model of public buildings

                那 威[1] 王云鹏[1] 侯 静[2] 武 涌[3]
                [1] 北京建筑大学 [2] 北京交通大学 [3]中国建筑节能协会

                摘要:

                以我国公共建筑能耗强度为研究对象,结合我国建筑能耗的研究现状和“十五”“十一五”“十二五”前后公共建筑能耗强度特征的变化,采用结构方程模型分析了我国气候因素、经济发展状况、土地利用情况、人口总量和节能水平对公共建筑能耗强度的影响,选取供暖度日数、居民消费价格指数、城镇化率、年末常住人口和能源消费弹性系数作为解释变量。以北京为例,采用多元线性回归分析方法建立了公共建筑能耗特征模型,并通过实证验证了其可行性,为我国及各省级的公共建筑能耗管理提供数据基础和理论依据。

                关键词:公共建筑,能耗特征模型,能耗强度,解释变量,结构方程模型,多元线性回归分析

                Abstract:

                Taking energy consumption intensity of public buildings in China as a research object, combined with the research status of building energy consumption in China and the changes of energy consumption intensity characteristics of public buildings before and after the 10th five-year plan, the 11th five-year plan and the 12th five-year plan, analyses the influences of climate factors, economic development, land use, total population and energy saving level on the energy consumption intensity of public buildings in China using a structural equation model. Selects the heating degree days, consumer price index, urbanization rate, annual permanent population and energy consumption elasticity coefficient as the explanatory variables. Taking Beijing as an example, establishes an energy consumption characteristic model of public buildings by the method of multiple linear regression analysis, and verifies its feasibility by empirical research, which provides the data basis and theoretical basis for the energy consumption management of provincial and nationwide public buildings.

                Keywords:publicbuilding,energyconsumptioncharacteristicmodel,energyconsumptionintensity,explanatoryvariable,structuralequationmodel,multiplelinearregressionanalysis

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